Showers and sunshine - typical English summer weather.
Down on our little allotment in South Gloucestershire in the good old Dis-United Kingdom Nosher and I spent the day dodging in and out of our allotment sheds to avoid the showers. During the longer ones we tended to end up in Nosher's shed, where our old deckchairs are stored, so that we could relax and put our feet up.
'Signs of recession in the UK economy grow ever clearer' Nosher announced during a wet weather break from gardening 'Marks and Sparks shares are down, and Taylor-Woodrow are laying people off. Those trying to talk up the economy are claiming it's a blip which will last from one to three years. Any wise person will be hoping for the best but planning for the worst - and the worst is that a crash is coming.'
'So what are you doing about it, Nosh?'
'I'm going to plant more seed next year' he replied 'because despite buying our groceries (that I don't currently grow) in Lidl's, our costs keep rising. And almost everything else is going up in price too - far faster than the 3% the Government will admit to. And we're looking at economising and laying down stores for the future, so that as our pension falls way behind price rises (which will inevitably happen) we've got something to fall back on. And we're also looking at how to keep our energy bills from rising too much. Finally, we'll be renewing our efforts to establish a cash-free economy with our friends and contacts, based on exchange and barter, so that we are to an extent insulated from price rises. For the rich a recession means giving up the odd holiday and maybe the second car - for the poor it means staring disaster in the face. And for many old age pensioners that's what a recession will mean - many are already in poverty, and many more will soon join them. What will you be doing?'
'Well, I'm in the fortunate position that my wife has a very good job, although at present I don't earn any money. But like many people, we've got a mortgage to pay, and those costs are set to rise, along with almost all other costs. So we too are looking at how best to ride out the recession. We don't take foreign holidays and we only have one car that's 16 years old. May have to give that up. Like you I'll be planting more seed next year, and investigating how to use energy more efficiently. But I agree with you that the people who are most likely to be hit hardest are those on low and fixed incomes. But at the moment the Government is doing it's best to deny that we're headed for a recession, so they won't be doing anything to help the most vulnerable until it's too late to make much difference.'
Nosher sighed.
'It's the usual story' he said 'The Government has a vested interest in doing nothing that will upset their pals in the City, so the most vulnerable in society will suffer the most. Situation normal - why should we expect anything different?'
More from http://www.overthegardenfence.blogspot.com/ soon.
Find out more at http://www.paulsturdee.co.uk/ and www.PGSBooks.co.uk
Paul Sturdee's book Is God a Terrorist? is available from all good booksellers - please support your local bookshop, if you don't it may not be there next time you visit.
Best wishes - and don't forget your contingency planning.
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
The Recession Cometh - Now Is The Time for Contingency Planning
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